OPEC+ Balances Supply Strategy Amid Global Stockpiles and Tariff Talks

Mr. Choeib Boutamine

July 7, 2025

OPEC+ is preparing for its upcoming meeting, where production levels will be closely reviewed. The group is expected to add 411,000 barrels per day by August, contributing to a total output of 1.37 million barrels per day. However, concerns are mounting over the short- and long-term impacts on global oil markets.

In China, stockpiling has reached record levels, with 1.18 million barrels currently stored. Meanwhile, U.S. inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels just last week, adding to a growing supply that could pressure prices.

Despite solid fundamentals during the summer, demand is likely to drop in the last quarter of the year. The right thing now is to wait and see. The U.S. administration is reviewing tariffs imposed in April, with ongoing negotiations involving China, India, and the European Union.

These trade discussions are expected to significantly impact the oil market, further emphasizing the visible influence of U.S. policy.
Too many barrels could push prices below $60 per barrel—a level that could negatively affect oil producers and destabilize OPEC strategies.

Algeria, whose exports to the US are primarily oil products, has largely avoided the impact of U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, major energy firms such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Oxy are reportedly negotiating deals to extract Algerian oil, aiming to boost exports to European markets.