Yesterday; the Opec+ re confirmed the extension of the actual voluntary cuts of 2.2 mbd to the 30th of june 2024 , Note that a collective cut of 3.66 mbd still valid till dec 2024 . 75% of the Opec ( not plus) are members of the GECF ,its summit just ended up a couple of days ago in Algiers.
** Voluntary cuts: Saudi Arabia 1.00 mbd-Russia 0.471 mbd Iraq 0.22mbd-UAE 0.163 mbd -Kuwait 0.135 mbd- Algeria 0.051 mbd-Oman 0.042 mbd- Kazakhstan 0.082 mbd a Total of 2.164 mbd. Saudi arabia and russia represent 68% of the cuts. Algeria is the only african country participating in cuts even its ranked the 4th producer in the african continent . Saudi arabia represents 47% of the cuts, russia 21%.
*** Three Months ago; In the beginning of Dec brent prices settled around 74.5 $ ( time voluntary cut did not take effect), Today prices are hovering at 83 $ , this bullish tendency is maily due to some factors:
1. Oil prices below 80 $ opened the appetite of consumers and drove investors to a comfort zone.
2. The voluntary cuts of the Opec+ applied since the 1st of Jan 2024 shrank the existing oil Glut even slightly but steadily.
3. No sign of truce in Gaza and the palestenian territories means still have a risk margin adding to that risks of more attacks with drones on the russian oil facilities.
4. China Stimilus , India demand on oil is increasing remarkebly, reports are showing India Oil product increased by 8.2% in last jan.
5. Low Natural gas prices could trigger demand on oil but why: suitable gas prices will encourage manufactories in germany and other countries to resume their activities which will attract related sectors such transportation , petrochemustry ,, etc those are relying on Oil.
6. Inflation is gradually edging down gave a sentiment to reduce interest rates , positive indicator for the investors .
